Fourthwrite .............................Issue No. 6

Sinn Fein set to replace SDLP as main nationalist party in Stormont

Recent election results in the North of Ireland require a different analysis from much of what emerged in the period immediately after results were declared. The received wisdom that the Northern electorate has become more polarised following the electoral success of Sinn Fein and the DUP is only partially true. Opinions are in fact little different although perceptions about progress have indeed altered.

Increasing strength of DUP and other anti-agreement unionists is not so much a new and rising tide of reaction as a manifestation of the old unionist desire to dominate rather than cooperate. . For much of the past thirty years, Unionism has alternated between demanding the capitulation of its opponents or berating its leaders for failing to secure the same. The faith placed in David Trimble to restore the ancien regime has proven misplaced so current thinking in the unionist community appears to be one of giving others an opportunity to try their hand

The scene is therefore set for another one of those periodic Unionist "rumbles". This is a time when all attempts at negotiation will be foiled by strident campaigns, unrealisable ultimatums and a purging of elected representatives thought to be soft on enemies of the Union. As a result of this, there will be little room left for political manoeuvre in Northern Irish politics. Unionists will insist that Sinn Fein must deliver on arms decommissioning, police reform must be ever more minimal, cross border bodies shall have to be even more innocuous if extant at all. Failure to comply with the demands and they shall move to have the Good Friday Agreement renegotiated or even discarded.

For diehard unionists, there is one difficulty involved in this strategy – they like having a devolved administration in Belfast and that goes as much for the DUP as for the UUP. Stormont expands the scope for local party activists far beyond what is available from the few Westminster seats and moreover, it reminds the faithful of halcyon days of yore. From this viewpoint, the solution for unionists is to find a sufficiently large body of "tame and reconstructed" nationalist politicians willing to work within the Stormont system or alternatively - to force those within to become more clearly "tamed and reconstructed".

In practical terms this means unionism will insist on the public decommissioning of IRA arms. If such were to happen it would be an event similar to when ancient Rome forced its defeated foes to walk under a yoke. In other words, a public act of humiliation and submission that effectively emasculates the victims of the punishment. Whether Sinn Fein can persuade the Provos to go this far is a moot question. Having opened arms dumps to outside inspection has already seriously - if not entirely - compromised these caches. To move further and physically disable weapons would effectively be a public coup de grace for the Provos.

There is little doubt that the bulk of the Sinn Fein party and the overwhelming majority of its electorate has no desire to return to war. There is indeed a very real feeling of deja vu as the party is now poised to replace the SDLP as the voice of constitutional nationalism in Stormont.

Thirty years ago the scene was similar as a then young SDLP swept the old Nationalist Party from the stage. In many ways, Hume’s party has fulfilled its historic role. It acted as a brake on the revolutionary forces within the nationalist population until such time as the British and Irish governments could persuade a majority of republicans to abandon insurrection and participate in the Northern Ireland system. With this holding operation successfully completed, the SDLP can now enter the scrap yard reserved for obsolete political parties and watch as Sinn Fein enters the transitional phase that takes it towards parliamentary politics.

If Sinn Fein is unable to perform this act of transition in the short term by persuading the Provos to disarm, the DUP and the diehards of the UUP will force a crisis in the new assembly. Without a majority of MLAs willing to work the system, the British Government will very likely close the Executive.

For intransigent unionism, there is a hard-headed calculation in this move. Unionism must be prepared to be patient and play the waiting game that is direct rule. It is not the optimum situation for them but neither is it a completely unpalatable prospect. In their eyes, Ulster remains British and the focus of political life is after all thereafter-concentrated in Westminster. They know though, that Sinn Fein is then placed in the same position that debilitated the SDLP in the late ‘70’s and throughout all of the ‘80’s. A party committed to a parliamentary process that is not delivering for them either in the parochial sphere or on a broader stage. Inertia is not a favourable factor for Sinn Fein and sooner or later they would have to return to a reformed local administration on unionist terms or watch ruefully as they suffer the fate that once befell the Nationalist Party and is now also happening to the SDLP.

At the end of the day, the North remains a part of the UK and Unionism retains its veto over how the area is governed. Sinn Fein may have increased its share of the vote but it has not expanded its range of options.